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US imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU are set to increase by 50% or more by 2030 as Russia’s gas will soon fall under western sanctions and new infrastructure will give US supplies an edge over other regions, according to a former European Commissioner for Energy.

Ex-commissioner Andris Piebalgs, who served for ten years until 2014 and currently advises the Latvian president, said EU gas is currently imported roughly half through pipelines and half via LNG. The Latvian said the US currently accounts for slightly more than 20% of total gas imports to the EU, around 45% of the LNG.

“I expect the US share in natural gas imports to the EU to grow between 20% to at least 30%, growing more than 50% by 2030,” Piebalgs said, adding that some modelling suggests it could even double to account for a 40% share of EU imports, “but it very much depends on the changes in natural gas demand.”

Partly that is due to a relative decrease in Russia’s share in total pipeline and LNG EU gas imports, which still exceed 10% of EU imports but are affected by EU sanctions, Piebalgs said, with MEPs calling for “full closure” of the EU market to Russian fossil fuels.

In addition Piebalgs said that as of 2026, the US will have a substantial number of new liquefaction facilities coming onstream, boosting US capacity to serve the LNG market.

Of other alternative suppliers who could also pick up demand arising from a decrease in Russian supply, Piebalgs said Algeria has no reserves to increase production substantially, while Qatar is “very strongly connected with Asian markets”, though Azerbaijan, currently suppling 4% of all EU imports, could increase production, he said.

“I believe EU markets will continue to be attractive to all potential suppliers. As the EU is phasing out fossil fuels, long-term contracts are getting less attractive to importers and the suppliers with more flexibility will get advantages,” said Piebalgs.